Hinton on AI - already conscious?
Monday, 22 June 2026
Thursday, 11 June 2026
RUSI Article - Measuring Lethality: Army Combat Power and Force Design (Not a Good Day for Lanchester)
A friend sent me a link to this interesting RUSI article, which ruminates around the topic of - "if you cannot be as big as the enemy can you be "bad ass badder than them instead". This is "bad ass as" in "more lethal" .. so are we talking Tiger tanks against Shermans again? Please read on to find out more and what it means for the UK against the Russian threat (see link below):
https://static.rusi.org/measuring-lethality-rusi-apr-26.pdf
It also seemed to suggest policy making and reality are remarkably different, especially if you pretend everything boils down to an equation!
To quote from the paper (on page 27):
The concept of the Lanchester Equation, modelling the relative accumulation of advantage of an aggregate force as attrition is suffered in engagements[39], is perhaps the perfect demonstration of a very sound theory when it is mathematically represented – with remarkably little utility in assessing any real-world military outcomes[40].
- [39] Frederick William Lanchester, Aircraft in Warfare: The Dawn of the Fourth Arm (London: Constable and Co., 1916), pp. 39–66.
- [40] Michael J Artelli and Richard F Deckro, ‘Modeling the Lanchester Laws with System Dynamics’, Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology (Vol. 5, No. 1, 2008), p. 7.
From 1916 to 2008 to 2026 the debate about Lanchester seems to go on and on. The problem seems to lie when people try and apply Lanchester as a general for all case, instead of when Lanchester conditions are met. The trouble is you only seem to know when these conditions are met, after the event. Then there is teh problem of retrofitting the data to suit your needs.
Note: People who "like Lanchester" don't seem to like wargaming as a participant but rather see it as a simulation "stand back" process where they are just dice chuckers. To me that if wrong, to wargame you have to take agency and responsibility. Anecdotally I keep seeing "Lanchestarians" losing their flanks and manoeuvring backwards on the table top. Harsh, but er, true!
Monday, 8 June 2026
Cold War Space Race: CCCP goes Lunar with Soyuz and US NASA Saturn 1B - CoW Game Prep 2026 (WD)
This is a blast from the past and down Airfix memory lane I go. The lunar lander (The Eagle) which was part of the Saturn 1B (IIRC) was hidden in an unassembled, primed and "brown washed" state for such a long time. All it took was for possible inclusion in my Conference of Wargamers (CoW) game 2026, "The Earth Prepared" to jolt it towards the painting tray (see below, not sure about the hole in the roof, but I think that is where it attached to the orbiter Columbia - I quite like how it has come out):
Note the little Yuri on the launch pad, a tiny dot towards the front of the CCCP (LHS) launch pad.
The big boys rockets - the diminutive Soyuz in comparison to one of the 'smaller' American rockets, the Saturn 1B (see below, a stretch goal for the game is to get the Saturn V, currently hiding in the loft, assembled and painted too):
Note the little Yuri on the launch pad, a tiny dot towards the front of the CCCP (LHS) launch pad.
Sunday, 7 June 2026
FREE GAME: WWII Pacific Logistics - Fleet Train (Louis Coatney)
Just when I thought there was not much to LinkedIn somebody goes and posted an interesting game link! Click bait it is not, thank you Lou Coatney (see link to his website - not LinkedIn, below):
Remember the quote: "Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics."
Saturday, 6 June 2026
AI Again - It Is All In The Mathematics Not The Marketing Hype
It is quite humbling to try and follow a great mathematician explaining complex subject matter and bringing an analogy to AI, outlining the consequences to what we think know about our use of AI (see link below):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukpCHo5v-Gc
If you thought you know what AI us and you knew what you were dealing with and how to work with it, then my friend the chances are you are sadly mistaken!
Not killer robots but killer stupidity awaits.
Friday, 5 June 2026
Supercharge Me - Again, But Wait Have I Not Told Everyone About This Game Yet?
This is a game that just keeps giving and I am dying to get my hands on my own personal copy. To my shame I may have posted on other social media but not yet blogged about it (which is very, very strange as I thought, with almost complete certainty, that I already had raved about it here).
Board Game Geek:
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/312630/supercharged
The advantage of pole position is that you can get clear of the field and end up in an individual one-on-one speed battle (see below, a local bespoke addition to the standard counter is adding orange trim to the car counters side. This indicates the car has moved for this turn, more obvious than the subtle flip-flop position of the driver and helps game play. As the game is played, it is phased, with white trim car to move first one turn and then the orange trim cars to move the next turn. This avoids a needless car flipping reset at the start of each phase - which we first started to do, then wondered why we were doing it! Motto: Keep it simple!):
You have a huge problem if you get stuck behind cars still yet to move, if you cannot make your minimum move or three spaces (IIRC) you spin (see below, if the orange trim cars have to go next .. they will have a big problem):
The corners of the track can be carnage (see below, note the colours represent national teams, in two tiers, first rate nations [which have slightly better cars and can .. potentially .. go faster] and the second tier enthusiasts .. which are mainly "bot run". This makes them less aggressive, speed bumps following the racing line, that need to be passed):
By the time we come to the second lap the car drop-out is over 50% (see below, the field is certainly now getting spaced):
What I love about the mechanics is the very clever event deck (no scrambling around for dice lost underneath the table) that drives a very fast paced game (see below, the crowds cheered and went wild as the "sixth car" out a starting field of twenty actually managed to finish):
Taken from the Board Game Geek website (see photograph below), it shows a little of the back story of Supercharged's development. It started off life as a UK wargames convention participation game, touring the country with its inventors/designers Mike Clifford and Mike Siggins (of Wargamers Notebook fame in the old school Wargames Illustrated and Miniature Wargames magazines). The 1/72 kit looked absolutely epic (see below, now that looks like trouble ahead at the first bend. Also note teh beer refreshment on the side - always sign of a good game set-up):
The game comes down to head-to-head contests of tailgating cars trying to survive the tangle of the bends (classic pile up territory) but tensely waiting for the chance on the straights to push on with a devastating turn of speed (see the picture below, is that not the pure atmospheric bliss of the period coming through and touching your inner child! Try not making car noises!):
I consider the above game set=up as a "stretch goal" but one well worthy of pursuing!
Dietz Foundation (Shop):
To put it in context, I am no petrol head but this is a racing game I actually enjoy playing. Set in the 1920's to 1930's where motorsports seemed to be the preserve of the richly insane, it has a certain crazy international charm (Siamese Princes for example) and warmth that allows it to be a good family/mates game (despite the natural urge for your team to be winning). It is also a spectator sport if/when you get knocked or rather spun out. It lacks the cruel cheesiness of rules from other racing games and here purely finishing a race is in itself is something of an achievement. Historically one race was called a draw because nobody finished! Two circuits of the track constitutes the race which sounds achievable, but isn't for most cars (see below, a self assembly track, playing deck and card stock period motor cars playing pieces):
The Race:
A very busy start (see below, the compressed field on the first two corners means that "spin-offs" are inevitable):
The advantage of pole position is that you can get clear of the field and end up in an individual one-on-one speed battle (see below, a local bespoke addition to the standard counter is adding orange trim to the car counters side. This indicates the car has moved for this turn, more obvious than the subtle flip-flop position of the driver and helps game play. As the game is played, it is phased, with white trim car to move first one turn and then the orange trim cars to move the next turn. This avoids a needless car flipping reset at the start of each phase - which we first started to do, then wondered why we were doing it! Motto: Keep it simple!):
You have a huge problem if you get stuck behind cars still yet to move, if you cannot make your minimum move or three spaces (IIRC) you spin (see below, if the orange trim cars have to go next .. they will have a big problem):
The corners of the track can be carnage (see below, note the colours represent national teams, in two tiers, first rate nations [which have slightly better cars and can .. potentially .. go faster] and the second tier enthusiasts .. which are mainly "bot run". This makes them less aggressive, speed bumps following the racing line, that need to be passed):
By the time we come to the second lap the car drop-out is over 50% (see below, the field is certainly now getting spaced):
What I love about the mechanics is the very clever event deck (no scrambling around for dice lost underneath the table) that drives a very fast paced game (see below, the crowds cheered and went wild as the "sixth car" out a starting field of twenty actually managed to finish):
The game comes down to head-to-head contests of tailgating cars trying to survive the tangle of the bends (classic pile up territory) but tensely waiting for the chance on the straights to push on with a devastating turn of speed (see the picture below, is that not the pure atmospheric bliss of the period coming through and touching your inner child! Try not making car noises!):
I consider the above game set=up as a "stretch goal" but one well worthy of pursuing!
PS: I think the design is great ub capturing the gentlemanly feel of the period, as there was a lot of respect between the racing enthusiasts (they helped each other out a lot in contrast to teh commercialised competition of today's Formula One racing). The designers skillfully avoided the danger of teh game becoming a Mad Max Rally - which of course is Car Wars/Gaslands!
Thursday, 4 June 2026
Undercoating some vehicles: [28mm. 1/56] M3 Lee, Tiger I and King Tiger
Making full use of the spray can to its last spluttering gasp I managed to cover three of my 28mm AFVs (see below, the US M3 Lee Warlord Games sprue sale bargain at £12, well worth waiting for):
Side by side you can see the "huge" difference in size, but remember their combat introduction/debut was but two years apart (see below, 1942 for the Lee, and 1944 for the Tiger II):
Finally the spray-can's splutter finished in a timely fashion over the Tiger I (see below, again another steal from the Warlord games sprue salem guess what £12):
I am please to say that the vivid green dries to a dull, dark, camouflaged dark green.
The mighty King Tiger (see below, I know it is totally overkill for Chain of Command but for £12 in the Warlord sprue sale I could not say no to my inner teenage school boys' "yearnings". It still is a beast!):
Side by side you can see the "huge" difference in size, but remember their combat introduction/debut was but two years apart (see below, 1942 for the Lee, and 1944 for the Tiger II):
Finally the spray-can's splutter finished in a timely fashion over the Tiger I (see below, again another steal from the Warlord games sprue salem guess what £12):
I am please to say that the vivid green dries to a dull, dark, camouflaged dark green.
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